Talk About Escalation!
The predictable fallout from a stunning assassination attempt
Saturday evening, a 20-year old gunman tried to kill Donald Trump at a campaign rally. The bullets grazed the former president’s ear, seriously hurt two rally-goers, and killed another one.
The incident (which created this incredible marked-up photo) affirms the fears that the right wing media ecosystem has been teaching to its voting base, and the predictable response from prominent Republicans is only going to make things even worse.
This Was a Legitimate Escalation
This newsletter has covered escalations before. They are “the cyclical conduct between competing societal factions that can spiral out of control as each one retaliates against the other for real or perceived slights”:
An attempted political assassination is about as significant of an escalation as you can get, and it sure seems like this was a real attempted assassination.
When news first broke, I was skeptical. The way that the right-wing media ecosystem and its pundits were playing up the idea that the left wing had weaponized federal law enforcement and that a Republican electoral victory would “remain bloodless if the left allows it to be,” an assassination attempt on Trump seemed a little too perfect. Details of the shooting were still vague and didn’t include the casualties. I’d decided that, until the bullet was found, I would consider it staged, and entertained the possibility that it was a false flag operation.
It’s clear now that both reactions were wrong.
This was a legitimate assassination attempt. People were hurt. Someone died. Not living in the Right Wing Alternative Reality, I don’t believe that crisis actors exist and are willing to be killed.
I’m also convinced that it wasn’t a false flag operation done by a Trump supporter who wanted to give the right wing justification to escalate things further: The shot was too close. If this had been a false flag, this shot would have been absurdly reckless. At nearly 150 yards, it was accurate enough for the military to race to see if the shooter had served in the Armed Forces. If the intent had been to deliberately fail, the bullet would have missed by much, much more.
It Plays Into the Right Wing Alternative Reality’s Narrative
The worst part of the incident is that a single person’s decision to treat Trump like the existential threat that he is to the U.S. has cemented the fears that right-wing media outlets have created in their audience, and it did so without fragmenting the MAGA movement by removing its leader.
The right wing idea that law enforcement is run by Democrats is bolstered by the fact that the shooter was able to get such a good vantage point in spite of the Secret Service’s protection, and that a local police officer encountered the gunman right before the shooting but failed to stop him.
The right wing idea that it’s Democrats who are a threat to democracy is bolstered by the fact that this was an apolitical attempt to end the Biden v. Trump campaign.
And the right wing idea that it’s the left that is violent is bolstered by the fact that it was a violent act.
It’s simple and catastrophic. A single person’s decision to take matters into their own hands just lent the Right Wing Alternative Reality credence, as well as all the fodder that it needs to take a victory lap for its narrative. Right wing pundits are even claiming that this is proof that Trump is divinely protected.
The right wing just got all of the benefits of the rally around the flag effect, and its leader is still there to keep the movement cohesive.
Predictably, the Right Blames the Left and Then Escalates Everything Some More
Immediately after the shooting, the right wing did what it always does when something bad happens in the U.S.: Blame the left, including for what the right wing is doing.
Fox Opinion: “Calling Trump ‘Hitler’ and a threat to democracy may have just had deadly consequences.”
Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.) on NBC’s “Today” show: “When the message goes out constantly that Donald Trump would be a threat to democracy and the republic would end, I mean, it heats up the environment. Everyone needs to turn the rhetoric down.”
J.D. Vance (R-Oh.) on Twitter: “Today is not just some isolated incident. The central premise of the Biden campaign is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs. That rhetoric led directly to President Trump's attempted assassination.”
Even Republican Mike Kelly’s line is ambiguous: “I just wish people — tone it down. Quit trying to find, to blame somebody. The blame lies somewhere in the psyche of America.”
Nowhere did anyone address the fact that Trump has promised to be a dictator if he wins and implement a vague right-wing agenda that nevertheless closely parallels Project 2025, or that his anti-immigration rhetoric has taken on genocidal tones. Instead, they imply that accurately criticizing Trump for his statements and actions is inherently violent.
After saying that the rhetoric needs to come down, they predictably did the exact opposite: They escalated the tension.
Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.) on Twitter: “The Republican District Attorney in Butler County, PA, should immediately file charges against Joseph R. Biden for inciting an assassination” and “Joe Biden sent the orders.”
Johnson, again: “President Biden … said himself, in recent days, ‘It’s time to put a bull’s-eye on Trump.’ That kind of language, on either side, should be called out.”
Even the House Judiciary GOP Twitter account chimed in: “Joe Biden: ‘It’s time to put Trump in a bullseye.’ That just happened.”
It is unclear what Johnson thinks of Trump’s violent rhetoric and calls for political rivals to get thrown in prison, or what anyone on the right thinks about Biden’s campaign repeatedly condemning political violence.
What is clear is that this incident will be fuel for right wing fire if they gain power. Like every other real or perceived slight, they will use this to justify their retaliation against the left.
If Not This, It Would Have Been Something Else
Obviously, the assassination attempt is a significant escalation in the cyclical conduct between the left and right wings in America. The right wing is claiming that it is proof that the left wing is undemocratic and using all of the forces of government to get its way, and the incident plays right into that narrative.
It doesn’t matter that there is no indication, beyond a $15 donation to a liberal cause, that the shooter was connected to any political organization, the White House, or federal law enforcement or the Democratic Party. It doesn’t matter that all signs indicate that he was a lone wolf, acting on his own.
He attacked the leader of the right, therefore he is “the left” in the simplistic Right Wing Alternative Reality.
But if this particular incident didn’t happen, it’s not like the right wing wouldn’t have found or fabricated some other reason to turn up the temperature. After all, they have already used fake news to create a real escalation: With no evidence, they’ve already said that Trump’s 34 felony convictions are due to the left’s “weaponization of federal law enforcement,” which justifies their own use of the same levers of government if they take power.
The outrage coming from the right wing over this assassination attempt would have happened, regardless. If it wasn’t this shooter, it would have been something else, even if the right wing media had to make it up. At the very least, it would have been more baseless accusations of election fraud if Trump didn’t win.
The right wing would have found a reason to howl. It’s extremely unfortunate that they were given a very good, and real, reason for it.
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